After a strong start to the month, EUR/AUD has lost its bullish momentum and looks set to extend a longer-term downtrend.
Will EUR/AUD see losses in the next trading sessions?
Check out what’s up on the 4-hour time frame!
EUR/AUD 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView
If you’re trading this week’s European Central Bank (ECB) decision, you know President Lagarde and her gang are widely expected to cut interest rates by another 25bps. They may even be open to easing their policies further!
Meanwhile, Australia just dropped better-than-expected labor market data, which supports the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to stick to its relatively hawkish policies.
Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your homework on the euro and the Australian dollar, then it’s time to check out the economic calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
EUR/AUD started the month strong, climbing from its 1.6000 lows to trade closer to the 1.6300 area of interest. But it looks like the bulls have lost momentum, as the pair is finding it tough to draw in additional buying demand above 1.6300.
Specifically, EUR/AUD can’t bust through the R1 (1.6324) Pivot Point line near the 4-hour chart’s 200 SMA. More notably, the pair can’t seem to crack the ascending channel resistance that’s been around since August.
Does this mean EUR/AUD is ready to turn lower?
Watch your charts closely for bearish candlesticks that could take EUR/AUD consistently below 1.6200 as it could lead to the pair heading for the 1.6100 area near the S1 (1.6081) Pivot Point and mid-channel support. We could even see a return to the big 1.6000 previous support zone if there’s enough bearish momentum.
On the other hand, EUR/AUD could draw in enough demand at 1.6200 to push the pair back up to the 1.6300 resistance.
Depending on overall risk sentiment, EUR/AUD could also see sustained buying pressure above the previous resistance. In case of consistent trading above 1.6300 and the channel resistance, watch out for a potential move to the 1.6400 or 1.6500 major psychological levels.
Whichever bias you end up trading, don’t forget to practice proper risk management and stay aware of top-tier market catalysts when trading this one. Good luck!