USD/CAD is testing a long-term range resistance that could draw in selling pressure for the pair.
Thinking of selling the U.S. dollar in favor of the Loonie?
Here’s a possible setup on the 4-hour time frame!
USD/CAD 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView
In the latest episode of W̶h̶i̶t̶e̶ (̶H̶o̶u̶s̶e̶)̶ L̶o̶t̶u̶s̶ the U.S. – Canada trade drama, Ontario agreed to suspend a 25% surcharge on electricity imports into the U.S.
In exchange, Trump is considering pulling back on his plan to double tariffs on Canadian goods. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are also set to meet Thursday to discuss renewing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement before Trump’s self-imposed April 2 “reciprocal tariff deadline.”
Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your homework on the U.S. and Canadian dollars, then it’s time to check out the economic calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
The back-and-forth in U.S.-Canada trade relations sent USD/CAD on a wild ride, spiking to the 1.4520 area before sellers stepped in with long wicks and red candlesticks.
What’s next for USD/CAD?
For now, 1.4500 looks like a tough ceiling for the bulls, with the psychological level aligning with the R1 (1.4523) Pivot Point and a range resistance that only briefly gave way in early February.
If sellers gain control, watch for more red candlesticks and potential downside momentum, possibly dragging USD/CAD toward the 1.4330 mid-range area near the 100 and 200 SMAs. A break lower could even open the door to the S1 Pivot Point near the 1.4200 psychological level, especially if a fundamental catalyst fuels the move.
On the flip side, if the pair extends its recent upswings and sustains trading above 1.4500, bullish momentum could build, paving the way for a push toward the 1.4700 resistance zone. Keep an eye on price action above 1.4500, as it could be the trigger for a fresh leg higher.
As always, watch out for other top-tier catalysts that could impact overall market sentiment, and make sure you practice proper position sizing when taking any trades!