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FX Watch: CHF/JPY and NZD/JPY Breakdown Plays on a BOJ “Hawkish Hold”

Posted on April 30, 2025

Even though the BOJ is widely expected to sit on their hands for now, hints about future tightening or upgrades in their inflation forecasts could still spur declines for CHF/JPY or NZD/JPY.

Our Event Guide for the BOJ Decision points out that stronger than expected price pressures could be enough for policymakers to retain their rate hike guidance for the next few months.

Here’s what I’m looking at in this scenario.

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